From Izvestia, April 17, 2024, p. 3. Complete text:
After Iran’s attack on Israeli territory, one should not expect the outbreak of a large-scale war between the two countries, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, they are confident that the Jewish state will still respond to the military actions Tehran took in response to the murder of several Iranian generals. On the night of April 14, Iran attacked Israel with drones and ballistic missiles.
The Iranian side reported that Tehran had exercised the state’s right to self-defense after Israeli strikes on its consulate in Syria, where two IRGC generals and five officers accompanying them were killed. On April 16, [Russian President] Vladimir Putin telephoned Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The Russian president expressed hope that all parties would show reasonable restraint and not allow a new round of confrontation.
Iraqi political analyst Abdel Jalil Abud Yassin said that “Israel’s position is now very difficult, which is due to its aggression against Gaza and Palestine. The aggression against the Iranian Embassy in Damascus was a maneuver to distract from the situation in Gaza. Netanyahu wanted to drag all the great powers into a big war, but he failed. All the players in the Middle East conflict realized that nothing good would come of this.
“Israel is now unable to respond to Iran’s attack, since it could hurt Netanyahu’s reputation.”
Sergei Demidenko, associate professor at the Russian President’s Academy of National Economy and Public Administration said that “In response to Iran’s attack, one should expect a mild reaction from Israel, since the Iranian attack carried two messages. First, Iran made a resonant statement rather than inflicting military damage on Israel. Second, Iran has the means to deliver quite serious and powerful weapons.
“If Israel attempts escalation, it is in a position to deliver a more powerful response. Israel may respond by striking Hezbollah, the Palestinians, or by killing or announcing that it killed another IRGC general and calming down. There are no prerequisites for a major war. Israel is not ready to start it.”
Ruslan Mamedov, scientific director of the Yevgeny Primakov Center for Foreign Policy Cooperation, said that “No further large-scale escalation between Iran and Israel should be expected, although the Israeli leadership may decide on a limited retaliatory strike. Regional dynamics are also important. The Gulf monarchies are interested in a stable environment for their further domestic development. I am referring to states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, which are capable of influencing Washington.”
Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arabic and Islamic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, said that “Israel’s response will take place no matter what and will be forceful. The Israeli military-political leadership cannot abandon key elements of its security policy and cannot, in this case, fail to respond to a blow that threatens the state’s reputation as an impregnable bastion in the midst of the turbulent Middle East. Israel needs to show its willingness and ability to retaliate against any attempt to jeopardize the security of the country, its territory and, above all, its population.
“The Iranian strike did not lead to large losses among the civilian population and the Israeli military, but it creates a precedent – it is possible to strike Israel without consequences. The Israeli leadership cannot allow this to happen. The response, of course, should be demonstrative to exactly the same extent as Iran’s attack on Israel.”