Moscow Presents Ukraine Peace Plan at SCO Summit

From Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 5, 2024, p. 1. Condensed text:

[Speaking at the SCO summit] in Astana, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on a [peaceful] settlement in Ukraine. According to him, everything depends on the desire of Kiev and its Western sponsors to stop the fighting and begin negotiations. Therefore, responsibility for the bloodshed rests with the US and its allies. However, Moscow’s key partners, such as China or Turkey, cannot support this initiative, since such a step would deprive them of the chance to serve as mediators. . . .

Speaking at the Astana conference, Putin expressed gratitude to its participants for their efforts to facilitate the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. However, that smart diplomatic move was unlikely to dampen skepticism among many summit participants about Moscow’s plan. After all, the devil is in the details. As the Kremlin leader said earlier, it is necessary to consider the concerns not only of Ukraine but also of the other side. So for a ceasefire to be discussed, Kiev has to withdraw its troops from the Donetsk Basin and Novorossia¹ [and] drop its ambitions to join NATO, [the] TASS [news agency] reported. It is also necessary to enshrine into law Ukraine’s nonbloc, nonnuclear status.

A legitimate question arises: Has the summit in Kazakhstan brought peace in Ukraine any closer? Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post looked into this. It wrote that Chinese President Xi Jinping met Vladimir Putin for the second time in less than two months after their meeting in Beijing, where the [two] leaders vowed to deepen [comprehensive] strategic partnership, including [strengthening defense and] military ties. Notably, Xi said at the time that China should “nurture” the unique value of its relations with Russia.

However, Putin also visited Vietnam and North Korea, signing a mutual defense pact with the latter. As for China, it has expanded its presence in Central Asia, traditionally part of Russia’s zone of influence, the newspaper said.

For example, in 2023, China overtook Russia to become Kazakhstan’s biggest trading partner, with bilateral trade topping $41 billion. During his talks with Kazakh President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev in Astana, Xi vowed to safeguard the common interests of the two countries [and] help Kazakhstan play the role of a middle power on the international stage. Tokayev responded by saying that Astana considers Beijing a loyal strategic partner.

According to Kazakh expert Timur Umarov, Xi will try to make the most of his visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. After all, China’s security depends on these countries. Kazakhstan’s border with China’s Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region runs for more than 1,700 km, and Xinjiang is China’s most volatile region. Uighurs were outraged by [state-driven Han] Chinese migration. Protests erupted, which were not completely quelled until the mid-2010s.

China helped both Astana and Dushanbe reinforce their border troops to prevent terrorist attacks from unstable Afghanistan. At the same time, Beijing’s decision to finance the construction of a railway line from China via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, bypassing Russia, came as an indirect response to military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. This route will help considerably cut the costs of transporting Chinese goods to Europe.

But why did Beijing react warily to the Russian-North Korean pact? Comments by Chinese experts indicate that China is not sure about the rationality of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s actions. Beijing is worried about a war breaking out near its borders. This is especially pertinent given that China has a mutual defense treaty with North Korea dating back to the cold war era [1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance], which is still in effect.

Whatever the case may be, the summit in Kazakhstan has ended. Now China will hold the rotating presidency of the SCO.

A final declaration was signed, along with a package of documents, including treaties on joint efforts to counter terrorism; the SCO antidrug strategy’ and energy, environmental protection and ecotourism agreements. At the same time, the SCO regional antiterrorist center, created in 2002, will be reorganized as a universal center. According to Putin, it will address the entire spectrum of security threats.

Perhaps the most prominent participant in the Astana discussions (after Xi and Putin) was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey-based journalist Boris Pilyatskin told NG that Ankara repeatedly offered itself as a moderator in Ukraine settlement talks. However, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Erdogan could not act as a mediator. Pilyatskin believes the reason is that Turkey has not recognized the Crimea as part of Russia.

After the SCO summit, Putin responded to reporters’ questions, most of which concerned prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis. According to him, in order for a ceasefire to happen, Ukraine must agree to take steps toward demilitarization that would be irreversible and acceptable to Russia. The Russian president believes that the conflict is unlikely to be resolved through mediation alone. After all, a mediator needs to have the authority to sign documents. Still, Russia welcomes mediation.

¹[Novorossia (New Russia) is the historical name of an area along the northern Black Sea coast that Russia acquired from Turkey by a series of peace treaties in the 18th and early 19th centuries. Most of it is now part of Ukraine. – Trans.]