Letter From the Editors

Hungary’s Viktor Orban is on a mission. Last week’s stopover in Kiev to meet with President Zelensky was apparently just a warm-up act for the Hungarian politician: This week, he made a surprise visit to Moscow (the surprise was somewhat spoiled when the Hungarian side made a request for his jet to fly through Polish airspace). He even had time to stop by a summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Shusha, Azerbaijan. Clearly Orban thinks his relationship with the EU leadership lacks a certain spark… Brussels was not amused and reprimanded Orban for his unilateral antics.

But Orban did not stop there: In a conversation with Die Weltwoche, he teased another “surprise visit” – which turned out to be China. Next up for Orban – the NATO summit in Washington, but most importantly, a possible meeting with Donald Trump. So what is the purpose behind the Hungarian PM’s whirlwind of activity? According to expert Vasily Kashin, “Orban is trying to present himself as a link between the Chinese, the Trumpists in the US and a part of the Euro-elite that is skeptical about the prospects of continuing the [Ukraine] conflict.”

Whether the gambit succeeds is another matter. Orban is clearly counting on the right’s strong showing in the European Parliament elections. But as elections in France this week show, what you see is not always what you get. After Marine Le Pen’s National Rally came in like a tsunami in the first round of voting, the political atmosphere in France could be best described as “panic,” writes political analyst Andrei Smolyakov. Police presence was stepped up following attacks on politicians from all sides of the spectrum, and National Rally’s landslide was considered all but a fait accompli. But instead of a victory, Le Pen’s party wound up in third place.

Emmanuel Macron, who seemed resigned to hand the reins over to his main political rival, actually managed to pull the rabbit out of a hat by allying with the left and centrists. By pulling third candidates from races in districts where National Rally was predicted to win, they lowered the chances of Le Pen coming out ahead.

But this could be Macron’s – and France’s – Pyrrhic victory. According to Deputy Hervé Juvin, “if National Rally had been able to form a government by a relative majority or an absolute majority, then, in the extremely difficult situation France finds itself in today, Marine Le Pen would have been doomed to defeat to in the 2027 election.” Instead, it just boosted its chances. Expert Sergei Fyodorov agrees: “National Rally. . . . can join the silent opposition and prepare for the 2027 election, when it will be able to seek victory in the presidential and parliamentary elections because of its growing influence,” he says. Meanwhile, the anti-Le Pen coalition, while riding high for now, may find it impossible to form a government.

Learning from past electoral mistakes was also evident in Russia’s restive Khabarovsk Territory. After popular governor Sergei Furgal was arrested and convicted on charges of murder and attempted murder, protests rocked the region for four months. Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s decision to appoint Mikhail Degtyaryov as Furgal’s replacement proved ill-conceived – despite being a fellow LDPR member, Degtyaryov was not a local. What’s more, he filled his administration with other “outsiders.”

Determined not to make the same mistake twice, the presidential administration went with Dmitry Demeshin as their candidate in Khabarovsk after Degtyaryov was appointed sports minister. So just what is Demeshin’s je ne sais quoi? He’s a former deputy prosecutor general with a penchant for wearing military clothing, and speaking softly but carrying a big stick. Apparently, he likes to publicly scold officials (which locals respond to) and has distanced himself from United Russia (despite being a member). According to one political strategist, Demeshin is a “prosecutor through and through,” although he is “capable of thinking.” That could make for a dangerous combination in the fall elections. As France’s experience shows, a win can turn into a loss at the drop of a chapeau.