Letter From the Editors
According to 19th century French philosopher Auguste Comte, a country’s future is determined by the size and makeup of its population. His arguments are relevant today as many countries are grappling with declining birth rates and aging populations (to say nothing of economic crises and wars). Their policies, however, are often at odds with real measures that would help boost the birth rate and improve the standard of living.
Take Russia, for example, where a “childfree propaganda” law is up for debate in the State Duma. In a scathing critique of the law, demographer Aleksei Raksha tells Republic that it is so vague as to be rendered meaningless. The problem, he says, is that “dim-witted” elderly officials who do not understand demography and are driven by “greed and incompetence” are the ones making the decisions. In a misguided attempt to raise the first-born birth rate, these officials upped maternity subsidies for first-born children at the expense of subsidies for second- and third-born children, which were tremendously successful at encouraging births. According to Raksha, though, the only way to really prop up the first-born birth rate would be by “reducing inequality,” something no official seems willing to do.
Russia could also improve its demographic situation by encouraging economic migration. According to Meduza, however, Russian officials are trying to restrict this type of migration by limiting migrants’ rights and fanning antimigrant sentiments. As one political strategist explains, the authorities are doing this deliberately to distract the public from other issues, namely the war in Ukraine and inflation. But with the economy facing a labor shortage, restricting migration is hardly a risk the country can afford to take. As one government source asks, “Who will work in areas where Russians don’t want to?”
China is facing a similar problem, with its millions of young, highly trained specialists unable to find jobs matching their abilities and unwilling to work in the unskilled sector, which is experiencing an acute labor shortage. As Kholod reports, this is threatening China’s ambitions to become the world’s top economy. Now, many disheartened recent graduates are living off their parents and looking to prolong their studies or join the civil service to improve their chances at finding skilled jobs. The situation has become so dire that even the state propaganda machine has gotten involved, with President Xi Jinping calling on young people to follow his example by working in a rural locality. It goes without saying, though, that the prospect of herding sheep, tending crops and living in a mud hut like Xi did in his youth holds little appeal for young people, who are now refusing to have children in the absence of stable employment.
Meanwhile, the crisis in the Middle East is threatening to deepen after Israel launched what it called a “limited” ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah denied reports that Israel had attacked Lebanon but said it is “ready for direct confrontation.” Expert Sergei Migdal tells Novaya gazeta Europe that the purpose of the operation is probably to create a demilitarized zone along Lebanon’s border with Israel to prevent Hezbollah from launching missiles at cities in northern Israel. The creation of such a zone would displace about 1 million Lebanese, or just under one-fifth of Lebanon’s entire population, which portends a severe demographic crisis in the area.
It comes as no surprise that Iran responded to the incursion by firing over 200 missiles at Israel. But as NG writes, Iran has taken pains in recent years “to exacerbate relations with Israel (as well as with the US) only up to a certain point.” This is because ordinary Iranians have long seen the fight against Israel as “boring” and are most concerned with the country’s “dire economic situation” and “declining standards of living.”
And therein lies the rub: If countries want to see their demographic situations improve, they need to take actions that will support this goal, not work against it.