Letter From the Editors

We’ve come to think of political maneuvering as a relatively new phenomenon. Opportunist politicians bending the truth on social media, flip-flopping on issues during televised debates and failing to live up to campaign promises. But perhaps no one was more adept and serving everyone and no one than French statesman Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand. The extent of his political backbending translated to successfully serving the crown, then siding with French revolutionaries in 1789. Napoleon also found him extremely useful, but Talleyrand then went against his commander in chief and represented the vanquished France at the Congress of Vienna.

So was it betrayal, or keen survival instincts? The same can be asked about former Belarussian opposition blogger Roman Protasevich. In 2021, when he was traveling to Vilnius on a Ryanair flight, the Belarussian authorities reported a false bomb threat, forcing the plane to land in Minsk. Protasevich was arrested and was facing a 25-year prison term. After he cut a deal with the authorities, he was set free – and gave an expanded interview to reality show star-turned-journalist Ksenia Sobchak. When asked why he decided to turn state’s evidence, Roman said that those telling him to “heroically resist, tell everyone to go to hell, stay silent in interrogations” have for the most part fled the country, fearing even a 15-day administrative arrest. And the price of self-sacrifice for loftier ideals? “I would have been named a political prisoner and had some alley in a mid-sized European city named after me. And then what?” Pragmatism? Or betrayal?

American presidential hopeful Vice-President Kamala Harris pulled a Talleyrand move of sorts this week during an interview with Fox News. “Let me be very clear. My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency,” she told host Bret Baier. Expert Vladimir Vasilyev thinks the interview was driven by concerns that Harris is losing to Trump in swing states. In his opinion, the fact that she chose to distance herself from Biden was a sound move. Of course, “now that Harris has openly distanced herself from the president, he, and more importantly, the part of the Democratic Party that supports him, might trip her up,” he adds.

Ukrainian President Zelensky faces a similar existential dilemma. He finally revealed his much-touted victory plan at the Supreme Rada. Besides the already known point of permission to strike deep within Russian territory, another secret annex to the plan proposes “joint protection and use of Ukraine’s critical resources” to its Western partners. Experts in Russia immediately jumped on that one, effectively accusing Zelensky of handing over Ukraine’s resources to the West and thereby surrendering state sovereignty. As Yevgeny Semibratov sees it, the proposal to use the Ukrainian military as manpower in the interests of the West means Ukraine is turning into a private military company.

Another state about to embrace the “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” motif is Uzbekistan, which this week hosted a high-ranking Taliban delegation. In fact, Uzbekistan may become the third nation – after China and the UAE – to establish official diplomatic relations with Kabul. According to expert Anvar Yuldashev, Tashkent is racing countries like Kazakhstan and Russia to take advantage of the region’s economic opportunities. These include mostly energy cooperation with Kabul, as well as gold and copper mining. Of course, there is one caveat, warns Aleksandr Knyazev: “You can by no means rule out that the US and its allies would rather sharply change course on Afghanistan and fund an émigré opposition.” But as any investor will tell you, when risks are high, so is the reward.

In a world of constant uncertainty and instability, it is not surprising that more and more global players are opting for the Talleyrand scenario – seizing opportunities here and now, past allegiances be damned. Sometimes this results in disaster, and sometimes in a new Concert of Europe – a sustained time of prosperity for many (if not all) nations.