International Affairs No. 1, 2021 – Table of Contents

Key words: EU-U.S.-PRC relations, U.S.-PRC relations, One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative, Belt and Road Initiative, Huawei, 17+1 platform.

THE CONFLICT between the United States and the People’s Republic of China is increasingly taking on a systemic and, in a certain historical perspective, irreversible character. It unfolds not only in the economic, geopolitical, military, technological, and humanitarian dimensions of the bilateral relations, but also in the civilizational dimension. In addition to forming a storyline for Hollywood blockbusters, the hatred of everything Chinese in the United States, currently still focused on the “red-Chinese,” also actively penetrates the university milieu. With a little help from Donald Trump’s political strategists, the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected almost every state, has become a “China virus.” …

Key words: migration crisis, refugee camps in Greece, refugee minors, radicalization of society, coronavirus, labor market.

THERE ARE CONCERNS in European countries about the possibility of recurrence of the 2015-2016 migration crisis in the near future. Doubts about the readiness of the European Union to resist a new wave of refugees from crisis regions and ensure protection of the bloc’s external borders are confirmed by statistical data. At the end of 2019, Turkey, the EU’s southern neighbor, experienced an increase in migration pressure when the total number of Syrian refugees in the country reached almost 3.7 million. The intensification of fighting in Idlib province in early 2020 contributed to the escalation of Erdogan’s rhetoric; he has repeatedly called to stop deterring the increasing numbers of Syrian migrants from entering the European Union. As a result of the unilateral opening of the Turkish border with Greece at the end of February (it was closed on March 18 due to the threat of the spread of coronavirus), about 20,000 illegal migrants accumulated on the border. Many of them are not Syrian refugees fleeing the war but nationals of other states. For quite a lot of Afghans and Iraqis, Turkey is a transit country on their way to Europe. According to political analysts, Ankara’s actions can be regarded as an instrument of pressure applied on Brussels in order to gain additional financial and political benefits over and above the EU-Turkey deal of 2016.¹ …

Key words: UNFCCC, Kyoto-2, global climate change.

ISSUES concerning global climate change – by objective criteria, one of the most serious environmental threats of our time – have for many years been filling the top slots of the international agenda, and the political temperature of debates on this topic remains at the highest degree. …

Key words: BRICS countries, New Development Bank (NDB), cross-cultural management, corruption problems in BRICS countries.

THE FIVE MEMBER COUNTRIES of BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – possess significant economic resources and are significant political actors. On January 1, 2020, BRICS’ rotating one-year chairmanship passed over to Russia. The motto of the Russian chairmanship is “BRICS Strategic Partnership for Global Stability, Shared Security and Innovative Growth.” But the business cultures of the five countries seriously differ from one another, and it is essential to launch discussions to prevent these differences from causing misunderstandings and consequent conflicts. …

Key words: world economy, European Union, the Fischer equation, China, Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) Fund, United States of Europe

THE PRINCIPAL MEANS of recovery and reconstruction of the world economy after the present crisis will be the global management of the process of globalization. An important role will also be played by a Federal Europe that is capable of being an effective player in historical, economic, and social terms. However, it is necessary to make one small clarification based on the economic theory well established over the course of the last 50 years. It concerns the relationship between economic growth and the fair distribution of resources. …

Key words: USA, electoral system, U.S. Congress, elections, electors, mass media, social networks.

THE RESULTS of the 2020 U.S. presidential elections represent the exact opposite of the outcome hoped for both in the United States and beyond. Rather than shed light on the future of America, its people and its policies, the elections of November 3 effectively plunged the “land of the free” into a chaos of existential uncertainty, deprived Americans of confidence in the future and inflamed the hostility of opposing political forces to the limit. …

Key words: Russian cyber diplomacy, Department of International Information Security (DMIB), international information security, information and communication technologies (ICTs), Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG), Group of Governmental Experts (GGE), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), BRICS.

ON DECEMBER 28, 2019, the Russian president established a new division in the Foreign Ministry, the Department of International Information Security (DMIB). This showed special attention paid by the Russian leadership to the whole spectrum of issues brought into being by information and communication technologies (ICTs) and aimed to ensure prompt and effective diplomatic reactions to challenges and threats arising in information space. …

Key words: Dartmouth Dialogue, 60th anniversary, Wise Men, U.S.-Russia energy dialogue.

MANY ARE FAMILIAR with the thesis “As socialism is built, class struggle intensifies.” Indeed, as the Bolsheviks were moving toward their goal and the foundations of the state in its economic fabric, in the customs and habits of the people, in the nature of social structures were not changing fast enough, class struggle inevitably intensified, which enabled the Father of Peoples to lay the ideological basis for accelerating the repression machine. …

Key words: Visegrád Group, Ukrainian crisis, Eastern Partnership, European integration, Central Europe.

IN 2021, the Declaration on Cooperation between the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic, the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Hungary in Striving for European Integration¹ that laid the foundation of the Visegrád Group will be 30 years old. These three decades have been filled with impressive successes and lamentable failures; with political ideas that kept them together or divided them. Moving to its next jubilee, the Group has preserved its importance in Europe supported by the Treaty of Accession of May 1, 2004, that made these countries EU members and has succeeded, to an extent, in attracting Brussels’ political attention. …

Key words: Baltic countries, Baltic republics, USSR, Soviet Union, economic claims, money for the Soviet “occupation.”

IN 2015, a collection of articles was published in Latvia on two paramount issues – money and power.¹ The articles are about money one wants to get from someone else in order to remain in power. It wasn’t the first book of this kind, nor, of course, the last one. But it wasn’t an ordinary book – it had been prepared for an important occasion. In December 2015, the justice ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia signed a declaration setting out a plan to calculate damages supposedly inflicted on the three countries by the USSR, demand that Russia pay them compensation, and make assessments of Soviet crimes from an international point of view. …

Key words: sustainable development, blue economy, blue growth, comprehensive maritime policy, European Union, maritime spatial planning, comprehensive surveillance, artificial intelligence.

THE CONCEPT of blue economy serves as the basis for the transition to sustainable development in the marine sector. There is no universally accepted definition of this concept, but it is practically equated with marine (ocean) economy. Meanwhile, many definitions of marine economy (EU, the U.S., UK, China, South Korea, etc. [1: 141]) generally establish criteria for categorizing activities as maritime. One thing they have in common is the function of the term, which arises from the implementation of novel approaches to ocean management and governance aimed at sustainable use and conservation of ocean resources. Thus, while the word “marine” (ocean) indicates the sector of the economy (marine economy), the word “blue” defines the principles and mechanisms of its development and management. …

Key words: Venezuela, Operation Gideon, Nicolás Maduro.

SINCE Donald Trump took office, U.S. pressure on Venezuela has only been growing. Washington is using a vast arsenal of tools to overthrow the legally elected leadership of a sovereign state, stopping short only of direct intervention with massive deployment of U.S. armed forces and those of their allies. Chavistas are holding onto power despite enormous pressure that includes systematic and targeted economic sanctions, the recognition of Juan Guaidó as president (political pressure by way of initiating a “color revolution”), the provoking of mass desertions from the army, and attempts at recruiting agents of influence from within Maduro’s circle with the goal of pitting them against each other and weakening them. The attempt to directly eliminate the Venezuelan leader in defiance of all norms of international law is the latest addition to this arsenal. …

Key words: role of information, decision-making, repatriation campaign, experience, Crisis Management Center, Russian Foreign Ministry, COVID-19, coronavirus.

THE YEAR 2020 saw the most serious world emergency in recent history. Almost certainly, there had never before been a crisis that affected all countries without exception, regardless of their geographical location, political and social system, economic development level, and social characteristics. Protecting the population of their country practically simultaneously became the paramount task for all governments. …

Key words: Serbs, Croats, Muslims, General Mladic, memorial, Hague Tribunal.

Mikhail Kurakin, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of International Affairs: The events that took place in Srebrenica a quarter of a century ago, during the breakup of Yugoslavia, have come to be known as the “Srebrenica massacre.” What actually happened? Is this the right term to use? …

THE VOSTOK OIL project, recognized as one of the most powerful catalysts for the development of PJSC Rosneft Oil Company, has once again confirmed the status of the Russian oil and gas giant as the clear favorite in the Russian market for foreign investors. On November 16, 2020, Rosneft’s Board of Directors approved the sale of a 10% stake in LLC Vostok Oil to Trafigura Pte Ltd. The participation of one of the world’s largest traders has not only increased confidence in the project among the world financial community but has also aroused the interest of leading foreign and Russian analysts. They are agreed that we are dealing with a new oil and gas province on the Taimyr Peninsula, which promises to become a flagship project not only for Rosneft, but also for the global oil industry as a whole.

The scale of Vostok Oil is colossal: it includes the Vankor cluster (15 fields, the largest of which are the Suzunskoye, Tagulskoye, Lodochnoye, and Vankorskoye fields), the West Irkinsky area, the Payakha group of fields, and the fields of the East Taimyr cluster. The oil from these fields is of the highest quality exceeding that of Middle Eastern oil and benchmark Brent crude oil. Its sulfur content is 0.05%. According to Argus estimates, this oil could trade at a premium of $10 to $12 per barrel. The proven resource base for liquid hydrocarbons is 44 billion barrels (6 billion metric tons). Reserves density is around 17 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per square kilometer. …

Key words: CSTO Collective Security Strategy through 2025, coordination of efforts, peacekeeping mission.

ON OCTOBER 7, 2020, under Russia’s rotating presidency of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a roundtable titled “CSTO: Strategic Development Guidelines” was held at the Russian Foreign Ministry Reception House, timed to coincide with CSTO Founding Day. …

Key words: Greece, Russia, diplomatic relations, visits, cultural and economic ties, bilateral years.

DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS between Greece and Russia are 192 years old. But long before they were established, our countries were connected by strong bonds based on shared cultural and spiritual traditions, as well as on their shared history. Those who have been in the Kremlin and had an opportunity to see the fantastic frescos and paintings there know that these relations go back to the Byzantine era and the inception of Russian ethnicity. During the period of Ottoman yoke, many Greeks found refuge in co-religionist Russia, where they settled down and did well in commerce, arts and education. Others proved their worth in serving the Russian state in very high positions of authority. …

Key words: cooperation, political-diplomatic relations, Republic of Angola, Russian Federation.

COOPERATION is an essential tool for strengthening any country’s position in the international arena, as well as for maintaining its political, economic and social stability. …

Key words: Karim Khakimov, diplomat, Arab Five, Saudi Arabia, hajj.

NOVEMBER 28, 2020 was the 130th birthday of Karim Khakimov, a Soviet diplomat who has played a major and still underestimated role in enabling the USSR to gain a foothold in the Middle East. Khakimov developed methods and principles for our diplomats to follow in that restive region that remain useful today. In fact, it is only today, nearly a century after this extraordinary person was put in the forefront of Soviet foreign policy, that we are beginning to see the entire importance of his legacy. …

Key words: Comintern Intelligence School, Kushnarenkovo, Executive Committee of the Communist International, International Lenin School.

EVEN minus 30 degrees Celsius is quite tolerable here. The snow crunches invigoratingly, the lungs are filled with crystal clear air. This is because we are talking about an amazing place described by the formula “55/55” – the point where 55 degrees north latitude intersects 55 degrees east longitude. This place is deep in Eurasia and, accordingly, has the classic continental climate. The air is dry; there is no wind. That is why it is easy to breathe here in winter, even during the coldest weather. In summer, on the contrary, the air is so sultry that the Bashkir village of Kushnarenkovo (where our story unfolds) boasts one of the northernmost vineyards on our planet. …

Key words: Afghanistan, Sheberghan, Bactrian gold, archaeology, Viktor Sarianidi, exhibition.

LATE IN DECEMBER 1979, the Soviet Union moved troops into Afghanistan. The nearly decade-long presence of Soviet armed forces in Afghanistan in a bid to help the People’s Democratic Party (PDPA) put its Utopian dream of building Soviet-modeled socialism into reality was a complicated and controversial period not only in Afghan but also in our own history, and it still receives mixed assessments. …

Key words: war, heroism, heroes, comradeship, patriotism.

I SPENT much of my childhood in Ukraine. The son of an army officer, I moved from garrison to garrison due to my father’s promotions. Each time, I had to adjust to a new group of children, and that wasn’t always a smooth process. It was one thing if you were put in, say, a fifth-grade class that consisted of boys and girls of the same age from the entire garrison. Everyone would be glad a new kid had joined the class and friendships were normally quick to develop. But what was happening outside school was a different story: kids of all ages would come together in outdoor spaces and form a group with its own established rules and leaders. That was a milieu you needed some effort to adjust to. You had to go through various trials to win the right to be accepted by the gang as one of their own. But if you were accepted as such, you were one hundred percent safe. The gang would never have betrayed you and would always have protected and taken care of you. …