International Affairs No. 5, 2024 – Table of Contents

Armen Oganesyan, Editor-in-Chief of International Affairs: Sergey Alekseyevich [Ryabkov], how does the Russian Foreign Ministry assess the mediation attempts by various countries, such as China, Turkey, and several African nations, to resolve the Ukraine conflict? Can we say that any of them have proposed a plan that is to some extent acceptable to Russia?

Sergey Ryabkov: Russia welcomes attempts to contribute to a resolution, and we have been saying this over and over since the issue regained relevance after direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev in 2022 were disrupted due to the destructive interference of Western countries, primarily Great Britain. Since then, the countries you mentioned and their leaders have proposed a series of ideas, the latest notable one being the China-Brazil package, which has been formulated based on the changing realities on the ground…

Armen Oganesyan, Editor-in-Chief, International Affairs: Konstantin Iosifovich [Kosachev], you recently mentioned that Kamala Harris would be a credible contender to Donald Trump in the US presidential race and noted that Trump currently lacks a clear line of attack against Harris. Winston Churchill once said that a politician thinks about the next election, while a statesman thinks about the next generation. Trump positions himself as a defender of America’s underlying national interests, which puts him at odds with the global elites. It can be said that over the years, he has not lost the qualities of a statesman who thinks about future generations rather than the next election. This could become his line of attack. He could say: “I am a statesman; I stand for the future greatness of America and the future of the American nation in general. But Harris is merely a servant of the global elites. ” How do you view such a potential shift in the campaign rhetoric of the American election?

Konstantin Kosachev: With all due respect for the traditions of the American political system, I can honestly say that it is becoming obsolete. For almost any politician seeking to become leader of the nation, leader of the state, and winner of the presidential race, the primary goal is winning the election. There are either no longer any people in the US…

For decades, lobbyists for the “green energy transition” and the achievement of “carbon neutrality” by 2050 have tried, with little success, to push this agenda. Despite the longest and most extensive PR campaign in support of the planned throttling of the “anthropogenic factor” (read: traditional energy) as the cause of global warming, most unbiased analytical centers and experts today, in their main scenarios, do not foresee the abandonment or even a significant reduction in the consumption of oil and gas by mid-century. A unique feature of the current situation is that most oil and gas powers located within the 50th “energy meridian” are members of BRICS or have expressed readiness to join it. Yury Konstantinovich [Shafranik], for the first time, BRICS, increasingly referred to as the leader of the World Majority, has brought together the world’s largest producers and consumers of hydrocarbons. In your view, can that fact be considered a competitive advantage for the bloc, or is it a serious problem – a potential source of internal conflicts – that has yet to be effectively resolved?

Yury Shafranik: Indeed, there is still no international oil and gas alliance in the world that includes both the largest producers and the largest consumers of energy resources. For instance, OPEC represents the interests of producers, while the International Energy Agency represents the interests of consumers. It is worth clarifying here that we are specifically talking about the largest producers – suppliers to the global market – and the largest consumers, who import these resources from the global market. After all, America, as a consumer of energy resources, has not disappeared,…

IN RECENT YEARS, few academic articles on international relations have avoided the now commonplace statement that the world is changing rapidly and radically. The global transformations sweeping the planet are considered by many to be unprecedented in their scale, content, and speed. Previous formats and principles of international interaction are losing their relevance, being replaced by new ones. The postwar world order was dismantled by the cumulative effect of two pathologies: Gorbachev’s perestroika and the West’s drive for dominance. Both pathologies had a latent suicidal character, which manifested more quickly in the first case, resulting in the self-destruction of the USSR in 1991. The drama of the second pathology is unfolding now, showing the West’s degradation and its slide toward the final limit…

ON JUNE 24-30, 2024, the Days of India were held in Tver, opening the Russian stage of the international and interregional sociocultural program “BRICS People Choosing Life” under the slogan “From the ecology of soul and body to the ecology of the world.”…

AT THE Primakov Readings in November 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed specific aspects of the formation of a polycentric world. He talked in part about the tools by which the US has so far managed to maintain relative, albeit fictitious, unity and present the collective West as a partially consolidated force. By the end of 2023, the cohesion of the coalition formed based on maintaining the stability of the “rules-based world,” which in essence aims to preserve the dominance of the collective West as the global regulator, had transformed following a series of extremely painful political and military-political conflicts. In a state of relative “calm,” the US had managed to maintain the stability of the system. But when mainstream Western media and think tanks started talking about the need for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the end of December 2023, the consistency of the conflict coverage by leading global media began to break down.¹

Postindustrial capitalism might well be called “capitalism of sensory consumption.” The logic of its development dictated the primacy of communication (marketing, visual, sociocoercive) and control over socio-informational mechanisms. The transition in international politics from geoeconomic America-centrism to a model of “values competition” (with…

“For when they shall say, Peace and safety, then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.”

THE strategic defeat of Russia is a priority for the collective West.¹ Clearly, the issue is not even about winning on the battlefield, since at the level of doctrinal documents, a direct military confrontation between the West² and Russia is still considered something they intend to avoid due to the inevitability of Russia inflicting “unacceptable damage.”³…

EASTERN Galicia, traditionally considered a bastion of Ukrainian nationalism, only fully acquired this ethnocultural identity after the genocide of Galician-Russian activists, instigated by the Austro-Hungarian authorities during World War I. Even in the first quarter of the 20th century, Ukrainian identity had not yet fully taken root among the Galician-Russian population of Galicia. Among the Galician-Russian intelligentsia, there was a widespread view that the local Ruthenians were part of the triune Russian people, stretching “from the Carpathians to Kamchatka.”…

THE events that began in 2014 (the Euromaidan, the reunification of Crimea with Russia, the war in Donbass) have shown that the threat of hybrid warfare to Russia’s national security is real. Moreover, Russia is currently facing perhaps the most powerful hybrid war in history, waged by dozens of Western countries. All means are being employed except for direct military aggression, although there are some signs of the immediate involvement of NATO military personnel in combat against Russian Armed Forces units in the zone of the Special Military Operation (SMO).

Russia’s new Foreign Policy Concept emphasizes that, “viewing Russia’s strengthening role as a leading center of development in the modern world and its independent foreign policy as a threat to Western hegemony, the US and its satellites have used the measures taken by the Russian Federation toward Ukraine to protect its vital interests as a pretext to aggravate their long-standing anti-Russian policy and have unleashed a new type of hybrid warfare. It is aimed at comprehensively weakening Russia, including undermining its constructive civilizational role and military, economic, and technological capabilities; restricting its sovereignty in foreign and domestic policy; and violating its territorial integrity.”¹…

THE events associated with the start of Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) have sparked intense domestic political debate about whether the restrictions prescribed by the classical policy of “armed neutrality” are germane to the current moment. This discourse is well established in Switzerland, but never has it been so harsh. This is due in part to external pressure from NATO. Notably, ambassadors from foreign countries – the US, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark – as well as the NATO secretary general, have openly criticized the Swiss leadership for the insufficiency of anti-Russian sanctions [Frammery, 2023]. Essentially, the pressure is directed at getting Bern to lift the ban on the reexport of previously supplied Swiss weapons and to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Influenced by events in Ukraine, Switzerland has developed a strategic vision of foreign policy goals and priorities that takes account of new challenges and threats.

The “modernization” of Switzerland’s approach to cooperation with NATO, along with an analysis of the arguments of its supporters and opponents, is examined in this article based on official statements by the president of the Swiss Confederation, Federal Council documents,…

THE summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole.

The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty…

THE modern economy, in its “Friedmanian” interpretation, is structured in such a way that both ordinary people and investment bankers, to say nothing of the heads of central banks and national governments, are more concerned with inflation than any other indicator. Other macroeconomic parameters, such as GDP growth rates, budget deficits, the volume of foreign exchange reserves, the balance of payments, etc., are difficult for the average person to grasp. Their proper understanding requires a certain level of economic knowledge, so they are often accepted on faith, relying on official statistics and commentary in specialized publications…

NOT many iconic figures in world history have become embodiments of entire eras: Alexander the Great, Gaius Julius Caesar, Genghis Khan, Charlemagne, Napoleon Bonaparte, Otto von Bismarck, Charles de Gaulle. Even fewer outstanding individuals have had their names attached to historical eras or political phenomena – Caesarism, Bonapartism, Gaullism, Thatcherism. Among contemporary world-scale politicians, Donald Trump stands out – not for any particular achievement, but for ushering in the phenomenon of “Trumpism.” Less popular and undeservedly less well-known is the phenomenon of “Berlusconism,” named after the iconic Italian politician of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, Silvio Berlusconi…

THE formal establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Lebanon dates to 1839, when in Beirut a consulate was opened that in 1843 turned into the General Consulate of the Russian Empire. However, communication with St. Petersburg was conducted through the Russian ambassador in Constantinople, since the territory of Lebanon was part of the Ottoman Empire during that period.

The diplomatic mission operated in the capital of modern-day Lebanon until the outbreak of World War I, after which the consulate was closed, along with all Russian diplomatic institutions in Turkey, which had entered the war on the side of the opponents of the Entente. During these years, cultural, spiritual, and trade relations between Russians and Lebanese developed rapidly. A significant role was played by the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society (IOPS), which had been active in Lebanon since 1887, engaging in charitable and educational activities, opening 48 schools¹ in various parts of the country (al-madaris al-moscobiya – Moscow schools), hospices, and medical institutions. Ships of the Russian Society for Shipping and Trade transported pilgrims from Odessa to Beirut for treks to the Holy Land, along with goods of traditional Russian imports. Frequently, these ships served as platforms for exhibitions and…

ARKADY Yerusalimsky’s article “Legends and Truth About the First World War” was published in August 1954. Excerpts of that article are reprinted below.

… WORLD WAR I, which broke out in late July and early August 1914 – 40 years ago – unfolded on such a scale and with such destructive force and demanded so many human and material sacrifices that it could not be compared to even the most devastating wars of the past. Ten million dead and 20 million maimed – these are the sacrifices that nations, primarily European ones, were forced to make at its altar. Already back then, people faced a cardinal question: How to break free from the bloody vortex of war and prevent the possibility of its repetition in a new, even more severe form?…..

Amid the global reset, we will inevitably have to construct a cohesive narrative of national history, and World War I is a pivotal event, a crucial part of the puzzle.

But the problem is that in our country, the war has a reputation as obscure and unpopular. This is reflected in the various names that have been given to it: the Second Patriotic War, the German War, the Great War – none of them has truly stuck…

IN MODERN Russian historical scholarship, evaluations of the causes and nature of the Russian Empire’s participation in World War I often remain rooted in interpretations established during the dominance of Marxist-Leninist ideology. The Great War is still considered “criminal” and “unnecessary,” and Emperor Nicholas II is blamed for “entangling” Russia in this “unnecessary” war in 1914. The absurdity of such ideologically motivated assertions is evidenced by the fact that it was not Russia that declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary but rather Germany that declared war on Russia on August 1, 1914, with Austria-Hungary following suit on August 6, 1914. Furthermore, the entire prewar policy of the German and Austrian ruling circles convincingly demonstrates their preparation for an aggressive and expansionist war against Russia.

During the Soviet era, the nature of World War I was completely distorted. While before 1917 it was called the Second Patriotic War and even the Great Patriotic War, with the Bolsheviks’ rise to power the term “imperialist” was introduced. A study of the foreign policy of the Russian Empire of the late 19th and early 20th centuries completely refutes the notion of its “imperialist” ambitions. The main goal of Emperor Nicholas II’s foreign policy throughout his reign was to avoid involving…

THE disgraceful confusion within the International Olympic Committee regarding the playing of the Russian anthem and the displaying of the Russian flag at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris brings to mind a curious debate from the summer of 1941. Back then, a solution was found, and even the intelligence services benefited from it.

Let’s start from the beginning and with the obvious (although today it may seem unbelievable): On July 12, 1941, a Soviet-British declaration was signed in Moscow in which both sides committed to provide each other assistance and support and refrain from engaging in separate negotiations with the enemy.¹ This marked a step toward a formal alliance…

THE game of historical analogies is both fascinating and treacherous. The desire to find coincidences in purely superficial parallels often becomes irresistible. This is how entirely contrived “proofs” of history repeating itself are born. Unfortunately, something more serious than these myths exists – the potential and real possibility of such a repetition in the most treacherous, sinister, and typologically similar forms, but on a much more technologically advanced level…

MODERN Russia, as the successor to the Soviet Union, faces a number of global challenges, the main one, in our view, being the formation of a clear image of the present and a vision for the future – a national idea comprehensible to most Russian citizens and compatriots that is based on a synthesis of key achievements from the past and an understanding of the present context. The Soviet project gave a major boost to the development of world civilization. It demonstrated the capacity to make extraordinary efforts during the years of the Great Patriotic War and impressive results in the postwar reconstruction of the country, and it launched the first satellite and the first human into space. The USSR developed and employed effective technologies of geopolitical competition that Russia can use in its foreign policy today…

AS HUMANITY approaches the second quarter of the 21st century, it has taken a step toward a new phase transition, the main attribute of which is a breakthrough in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The global community has been swept by extraordinarily zealous attempts to seize the lead in developing regulations for the development and use of AI technology. AI not only generates numerous applied opportunities applicable in various areas of society and state life but also poses global challenges threatening international security. This situation has widened the digital divide, which has evolved into AI colonialism, created algorithmic polarization, and influenced the formation of AI alliances.

The Russian Federation, as a world leader in the development of breakthrough technologies, needs to build up its scientific and technological capacity to inhibit Western technological hegemony. That message is supported by the updated National Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence Until 2030, published in February 2024. As noted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, “new goals have been set, including ensuring technological sovereignty in such revolutionary areas…

FRENCH specialists Jérôme Fourquet and Jean-Lauent Caselli* are well-known in their country. In particular, Fourquet, director of a department at the Institut français d’opinion publique [French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP)], is the author or coauthor of several monographs dedicated to the evolution of the country’s economy, social structure, and electorate. Caselli, a journalist for the magazine L’Express, has published several works on changes in the lifestyle and social status of various segments of the French population. In the reviewed monograph, France Before Our Eyes: Economy, Landscape, New Lifestyle* they analyze the “radical transformation” that the country has undergone since the 1980s. It is particularly noteworthy that the authors base their conclusions on a vast array of statistical data, public survey information, and cultural works.

As can be seen from the title of the monograph, Fourquet and Caselli begin their analysis with the economy, as changes in it have led to sociocultural transformation, as well as changes in the “landscape,” which is understood as the territorial distribution of productive forces, services, and associated population masses. The authors underscore the deindustrialization of the country, which began in the 1970s and accelerated in the next decade. The monograph states that from 1985 to 2019, the…

THE Research Institute (of Military History) of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has released a monograph titled Foreign Experience in the Development of Reconnaissance-Strike (Fire) Systems*

The development of technology in the early 21st century is associated with the large-scale use of artificial intelligence (AI). Today, the military field is among the first to see innovations where everything that can be digitized and automated is being computerized and transformed by AI. Intelligence, data collection and processing, scenario development, decision-making, information distribution and transmission, target designation, and guidance are key areas that are currently getting the bulk of military R&D funding…

THE monograph Turn to the East: Russia’s East Asian Vector* (ed. S.A. Karaganov), published by the Russian Academy of Sciences, has naturally generated significant interest among Russian and foreign scholars of international relations, political science, and oriental studies. The authors are well-known Russian experts on the history and contemporary realities of the East: Professor Kirill Babayev, Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia (ICCA), and Sergey Luzyanin, Professor at the National Research University-Higher School of Economics and Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations and President of the Foundation for the Support of Oriental Studies. Babayev and Luzyanin analyzed an impressive array of documents and publications, as well as key stages in Russia’s foreign policy and foreign economic activity in Asia (with respect to China, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, etc.) over the period from 2014 to 2024. The authors covered both the main processes in bilateral and collective regional formats, as well as accompanying factors (relating to the US, Europe, and others) influencing the pace and nature of Russia’s “turn to the East.”

Importantly, the work illustrates the continuity of historical trends, where the logic of the modern process becomes a continuation and aligns…

THE new book Russia’s Foreign Policy: History and Modernity* by Doctor of Science (Philosophy) and Professor Valery Buyanov continues and develops his thoughts, expressed in previous works, on the need to demonstrate the continuity of historical processes in academic research, overcome the nihilistic attitude toward entire epochs in Russia’s history, eliminate the “rupture of the past,” and restore the continuity of time.

The book consists of five sections, each dedicated to analyzing key historical periods in the life of the country. These include Ancient Rus, the State (Tsardom) of Moscow, Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation. In the concluding part of each section (chapters 5, 10, 15, 20, 25), events and phenomena of the respective periods in Russia’s history and foreign policy are examined and evaluated from philosophical and worldview perspectives…